Warnings of 'extremist' attacks in Moscow
Source: US Embassy Moscow
Strange warnings have popped up overnight (all over Ukrainian Telegram channels), not something I would normally write about, but this concerns ‘extremist’ attacks in Moscow - which automatically triggers flashbacks to Putins early years.
Overnight the US Embassy in Russia issued this warning (formatting mine):
”Location: Moscow, Russia
The Embassy is monitoring reports that extremists have imminent plans to target large gatherings in Moscow, to include concerts, and U.S. citizens should be advised to avoid large gatherings over the next 48 hours.”
The UK government issued a travel advisory for Moscow repeating the US alert.
A notice issued by the German Embassy in Moscow and the Consulate in St Petersburg advised that both would be closed on March 8th.
Normally this isn’t something to cover, intelligence services pick up threats like this all the time, often they’re nothing but hot air, but given Putins history it is worth examining.
These warnings do not mean something will happen, hopefully nothing will.
What they do indicate, is that a US intelligence agency picked up a credible threat of some sort of attack, credible enough to issue a warning, one which of course is also seen by the Russians. Even in these times, credible and actionable intelligence of an imminent terroroist attack would be passed on to the Russian services,.
The alert mentions ‘extremists’ without going into details.
The alert serves two main purposes, firstly to warn their own citizens (of which few are left), secondly to alert the Russian authorities to US knowledge of these alleged attacks.
Alerting the Russians lets the US go on the record in public, reducing the ability of the Kremlin to blame any attacks on the US.
Putin has a track record
Something I suspect is on the mind of many people familiar with his early years is Putins track record of using ‘extremist attacks’ to consolidate his own power and direct Russian ire towards an external enemy.
The Moscow bombing attacks - ‘Ryazan Sugar’ - in 1999 come to mind. 1
Some analysts and authors have pointed to evidence suggesting Russian secret services were behind or involved in at least some of these, ostensibly it gave then Prime Minister Putin an excuse to start bombing the Chechen capital Grozny in retaliation. Which in turn ‘made’ Putin politically, he went on to assume all power on December 31st the same year, winning the Presidential election in March 2000.
The Moscow Theater Hostage situation2 and the Beslan tragedy3 also spring to mind, while there is some evidence suggesting the FSB was involved in, or even behind, the Moscow Theater attack, the Beslan tragedy appears to have been a bona-fide terrorist attack. In both these cases the Russian forces took actions that arguably maximized casualties (gassing the theater with narcotics, using flamethrowers against the Beslan hostage takers), and in both cases Putin used the attacks to strengthen his hold on power.
It is not unthinkable that Putins secret services have come up with a plan to cause mass casualties, with the intention to blame an enemy, be it Ukraine, the US, Finland, Estonia, Georgia etc. etc.
It is within Putins playbook to create false flag attacks, or let a real one happen, in order to manufacture a reason for action against the alleged perpetrator.
Please keep this in mind if some kind of attack does happen, pay attention to who gets blamed.
As I’ve written before, an escalation against the West will likely be presaged by some kind of provocation or event, which then creates the rationale behind that action.
Ie. that Putin may be laying the ground-work for a course of action.
Postscript:
All that said, there was an alleged plot by Afghan extremists against a synagogue in Moscow which was foiled by the FSB, whether these events are linked or not is unkonwn.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us-embassy-warns-imminent-extremist-attack-moscow-2024-03-08/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_Russian_apartment_bombings
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moscow_theater_hostage_crisis
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beslan_school_siege